Carrying-cost calculator
Every barrel you hold is charging you rent.
Aging inventory is at record levels, Kentucky alone holds roughly 16.1 million barrels, while bulk prices have fallen sharply. This model tells you, in dollars, what waiting another year actually costs, what price you would need in the future just to match selling today, and where you stand against what you paid. Barrel taxes are applied only where they exist.
Cost to hold this lot
$0
per year · $0 per barrel · $0 per month
$0 out of pocket (storage, insurance, tax)$0 money tied up at 8%
Carry over 4 more years
$0
As % of today's lot value
0%
Run the numbers
Sell today — net proceeds
$0
After commission and transaction costs
Hold 4yr — net, after carry
$0
Projected value less carry and costs
Break-even price needed
$0
Per barrel, in 4 years, just to match selling now
Against what you paid ($600 per barrel)
Sell today
$0
Hold 4 years
$0
Whole lot
$0
Where the money goes
Annual cost per barrel, by component
The whiskey is leaving too
Angel's share against cumulative carry, for reference
Year by year
Per barrel unless noted
| Year | Age | Storage | Insurance | Barrel tax | Money tied up | Total | Cumulative | Vol. left |
|---|
Assumptions and sources
Defaults are drawn from public sources and are all editable. Figures marked est are cross-market analogs or interpolations, not confirmed US bulk bourbon data — the bulk market is genuinely opaque and this tool does not pretend otherwise.
Kentucky barrel tax
Effective blended rate of 0.75% is back-calculated from the $75 million paid industry-wide in 2025 against $10 billion in assessed barrel value, per the Kentucky Distillers' Association. The phase-out schedule — 96% taxable in 2026, falling to zero in 2043 — follows KRS 132.140 as amended by HB 5. Barrels under two years old are treated as goods in process and pay only the state rate of $0.05 per $100.
Other states
Tennessee explicitly exempted aged whiskey barrels from ad valorem tax in 2018 under Tenn. Code § 67-5-216(c). No equivalent barrel tax was identified for Indiana. Kentucky is the only jurisdiction confirmed to levy this tax.
Angel's share
10% in year one, 4% per year through year nine, 3% thereafter — the model attributed to Buffalo Trace master distiller Harlen Wheatley via Columbus Bourbon and consistent with James Beam Institute findings. Rick position adjusts by roughly two points either way, per Kentucky Spirits Authority. Shown for reference only: bulk barrels are priced at their actual age and fill, so evaporation is already inside the per-barrel price and is not deducted again.
Storage and money tied up
Bonded storage credibly runs $24–60 per barrel per year at industrial scale. The 8% default for money tied up is what a balanced stock-and-bond fund has averaged over the long run (about 8.8% since 1926 per Vanguard model portfolios); an all-stock index fund is nearer 10% (Investopedia). If the barrels are financed, use your loan rate instead. Barrel-backed lending is under visible stress — Bloomberg reported collapsing collateral values in July 2026.
Barrel values est
New-fill sits near $450, close to the production floor. A two-year lot was asking $900 in early 2025 per the Wall Street Journal, and bulk prices have since fallen roughly 40%. Values for four-, six-, and eight-year barrels are interpolated — use your own quotes.
Purchase cost
What you paid is a sunk cost: it does not change whether holding or selling is the better move from here, which is why the verdict ignores it. It does determine your gain, so when entered the model reports profit or loss against it for both paths.
Transaction costs est
Cask brokerage commissions of 10–15% come from Rare Whisky 101 in the UK market; US bulk bourbon commissions are not publicly disclosed. Re-gauging must be performed by the bonded warehouse — see the LYQD Exchange policy on certified measurement.
This is a planning model, not tax, legal, or investment advice. Local Kentucky rates vary by county; confirm your actual assessment with your county PVA and your accountant.